As in previous years, SwimSwam’s Power Rankings are somewhere between the CSCAA-style dual meet rankings and a pure prediction of NCAA finish order. SwimSwam’s rankings take into account how a team looks at the moment, while keeping the end of the season in mind through things like a team’s previous trajectory and NCAA scoring potential. These rankings are by nature subjective, and a jumping-off point for discussion. If you disagree with any team’s ranking, feel free to make your case in our comments section.
Braden Keith, Spencer Penland, Andrew Mering and Robert Gibbs contributed to this report.
And we’re back.
After the truncated 2020-21 NCAA season that didn’t see any meets get going until January, the 2021-22 campaign is already in full swing with the majority of teams having raced multiple times, showing us a glimpse of what they’ve got this year.
While we’re in the final stages of our 2021-2022 College Swimming Previews, taking a deep dive into the top 12 teams from last season’s NCAA Championships, the first edition of our power rankings are a more up-to-date look at how we rank the top 20 programs nationally in the “preseason”—primarily based on roster outlook for the season, but a little weight based on how teams have swum thus far.
Without further ado, here are our women’s NCAA power rankings, along with the team’s standing in our final 2020-2021 power ranks:
Note: This article has been edited since it was first published, since our initial rankings were based on a writer accidentally leaving Alabama completely off his ballot. That adjustment has moved Alabama from #14 to #8, and we’ve adjusted the rankings accordingly.
Honorable Mentions: Florida State Seminoles, Miami Hurricanes, Minnesota Golden Gophers
#25: Notre Dame Fighting Irish + (2021 NCAA Rank: N/A)
After only scoring 12 points at NCAAs last season, Notre Dame lands in the top 25 thanks in part to the 14th-ranked recruiting class. Coleen Gillilan started off strong against Pitt and Cleveland State, and freshman Madelyn Christman looks like she’s the real deal. -JS
#24: Auburn Tigers + (2021 NCAA Rank: N/A)
Positive start to the season with a decisive win over FSU. Ellie Waldrep leading a strong start for the first-years. The Auburn women had a lot of NCAA qualifiers last year, just none who came away with points. Ryan Wochomurka had a ton of success with women at Houston, so he should be able to get a few over that hump this year. -JS
#23: Arizona State Sun Devils + (2021 NCAA Rank: N/A)
Emma Nordin will finally get a shot at a national title two years after finishing with the top time in the division in the 500 free. -AM
#22: Purdue Boilermakers -2 (2021 NCAA Rank: 20)
56 returning diving points puts Purdue in this spot. -AM
#21: Virginia Tech H2okies – (2021 NCAA Rank: 21)
Emma Atkinson looking to build off breakout freshman season. -JS
#20: Texas A&M Aggies -6 (2021 NCAA Rank: 14)
Maybe humbled a bit after their dual with Texas. Chloe Stepanek needs help at the top. -JS
#19: Missouri Tigers -1 (2021 NCAA Rank: 18)
Already three meets under their belt. Sarah Thompson is on fire. -JS
#18: Northwestern Wildcats -2 (2021 NCAA Rank: 16)
#17: USC Trojans +5 (2021 NCAA Rank: 22)
The Trojans had a very good weekend racing lesser competition at home. Laticia-Leigh Transom hitting 48.4/1:43.9 freestyles this early is something to keep an eye on. Kaitlyn Dobler looks good and Marlene Kahler appears to have adjusted to yards well. -JS
#16: Wisconsin Badgers -3 (2021 NCAA Rank: 19)
#15: UNC Tar Heels -3 (2021 NCAA Rank: 12)
An elite diver, solid relay potential, a few potential individual scorers. I have UNC ranked at about their ceiling, but this team looks like the archetype of a team that finishes in the 11-20 range. -AM
#14: Indiana Hoosiers +1 (2021 NCAA Rank: 15)
#13: Florida Gators +4 (2021 NCAA Rank: 17)
The Gators cruised to an early-season win over FAU and haven’t shown much of their hand yet. A low-key solid recruiting class should pay dividends down the road, especially with Russian freestyler Ekaterina Nikonova expected to join the team for the second semester. –JS
#12: Kentucky Wildcats -3 (2021 NCAA Rank: 9)
After breaking out to win the school’s first-ever SEC title last season, Kentucky has no major losses to report and holds close to their NCAA placing for now. –JS
#11: Ohio State Buckeyes -4 (2021 NCAA Rank: 7)
Another squad that has yet to dive into action, Ohio State is getting 33 individual NCAA points from fifth-year returnees Kristen Romano and Katie Trace, which gives the team a fighting chance to improve on their seventh-place showing from March. -JS
#10: Louisville Cardinals +3 (2021 NCAA Rank: 13)
A big jump for a team that was 13th at NCAAs. The Cards gave Michigan a good run at the SMU Classic, and getting Arina Openysheva back in the fold is big. -JS
#9: Georgia Bulldogs -1 (2021 NCAA Rank: 8)
The Dawgs don’t get underway until Friday, so it makes sense they slot very near the spot they finished at NCAAs last season. Losing Courtney Harnish is tough, but they’ve kept the majority of their top performers and Peyton Palsha comes over from Arkansas to fill the distance void. -JS
#8: Alabama Crimson Tide -3 (2021 NCAA Rank: 5)
This team finished 5th last year and return every single point including all 4 members of their title-winning 400 free relay. Their problem is that Cal and Texas also lost very little with 5th-year returners and Alabama’s recruiting class was unranked. -AM
#7: Tennessee Volunteers +3 (2021 NCAA Rank: 10)
#6: Michigan Wolverines – (2021 NCAA Rank: 6)
Michigan looked great at the SMU classic. Maggie MacNeil is obviously one of the best swimmers in the NCAA today, but behind her, freshmen Letitia Sim and Lindsay Flynn are looking like the real deal. On top of that, Michigan returns all 2021 NCAA scorers except Sierra Schmidt, although Schmidt did score 31 points last year. -SP
#5: Cal Golden Bears -1 (2021 NCAA Rank: 4)
The early season performances from Ivey are encouraging. She’s very much their go-to swimmer come NCAAs, and seeing her already firing is a positive sign. Rajic and Stadden look solid so far, and I think the first-years will make more of an impact than some think. -JS
#4: Texas Longhorns -1 (2021 NCAA Rank: 3)
#3: NC State Wolfpack -1 (2021 NCAA Rank: 2)
#2: Stanford Cardinal +7 (2021 NCAA Rank: 9)
Stanford looked flat against Utah. With their talent, we have to believe they’re still the second-best team in the country, but nothing so far would lead me to believe they can beat Virginia. -BK
#1: Virginia Cavaliers – (2021 NCAA Rank: 1)
Not much needs to be said—if you’ve been following the first few weekends that Virginia’s been competing, they’ve been near-flawless. Gretchen Walsh in particular has really impressed. -JS
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